Someone — now I cannot remember whom — made the interesting remark that Moore's 9/11 movie may help George W. Bush win the forthcoming United States presidential election.
The argument is that the movie will convince strong Democrats that Bush is very bad indeed, and by doing so will prevent Kerry from adopting the kinds of policies and making the promises that will enable him to gather the additional votes that he needs to win. The thesis is that Kerry will fear that rather than go along with any compromise, a few potential Kerry voters will stay home. The vast majority of Kerry voters may be willing to make the compromises, but the balance is sufficiently close that the loss of a few could change the outcome. By their inaction, the people who stay home would defeat their own hopes. They would get nothing rather than a part of something.
As I write this in early August 2004, both George W. Bush and John F. Kerry can each expect roughly two-fifths of the vote. To win, each needs to attract a few more votes. I have heard it said that George W. Bush will gain votes when Pakistan makes public its captures of high level Al Qaeda operatives and when Putin announces that he will send Russian troops to Iraq. And that George W. Bush expects his brother, the Governor of Florida, to ensure a win there by doing the electronic equivalent of `stuffing ballot boxes' if the actual vote goes for Kerry.
Bush cannot make vague promises since he now has a record. But he can arrange that certain events fall in his favor. On the other hand, Kerry can run against Bush's record, saying that the Bush Administration has shown itself both spendthrift and incompetent. However, Kerry dare not express positions or make promises that cause more than a few of his supporters to stay home rather than vote, and so must appear vague.
The United States certainly has entered or is entering a period of crisis.
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