Mostly, I am optimistic, but today I decided to pull together a few pessimistic scenarios. (Today is my birthday; perhaps there is a cause.)
First, a small issue that looks to be getting worse: electronic mail that is formatted in the HyperText Markup Language . This is dangerous. It is simpler and safer to write mail according to the old convention, which is to use plain text. It is also more frugal.
Second, a bigger issue: what if the efforts to generate cheap electricity from fusion fail? Our energy supply is vulnerable. Of course, some figure the middle August 2004 price for energy indicates an `oil bubble'. That may or may not be true in the short run. Regardless, it is clear that with economic growth in China and India, only a massive change in technology can reduce costs in the long run.
Technology changes bring me to a third issue: what if we do not see any of the five innovations that I figured would have a large impact by 2030 when I predicted them more than 20 years ago? So far, all the predictions have failed; fortunately, the predictions have a quarter-century to go:
Even in retrospect, none of these possible innovations appear impossible and all look profitable.
A very immediate concern of mine that we, as a society will put all our eggs in one basket. We will continue with efforts to make large scale databases interconnect, because the results enable gains in short term efficiency, as various states, like Massachusetts, and private businesses are discovering.
This action presumes that no foreign military will spend one-hundred million dollars or more to burgle, bribe, blackmail, or bamboozle anyone, or plant a `mole' with the enemy's beliefs. The target will not be a low level police man or woman, since he or she will presumably be prevented from accessing more than a few records at a time, but someone with wider access, such as a janitor or politician.
A fifth scenario is that people in the United States and other democratic states will forget that they must presume that the people who will make up a government will be evil. (In addition, they must make arrangements so that losers leave and winners do not push the losers too far.) The presumption of evil contradicts the way people should deal with families, friends, neighbors, and foreigners. The world is better when fewer people think badly of others. Indeed, as a practical matter, most people are decent and friendly, even when foreign.
But countries are more civilized when potential tyrants are inhibited. `Balance of power' is a useful governance technique.
Another fear is that the United States will avoid making sure that it provides the base necessity for good government, which is first of all order. Only after security has been provided is it possible to provide law, and create the conditions for justice and democracy.
A seventh fear fits with this, that those in government will fail to act on the understanding that a government can only tax, borrow, or scrimp; it can do nothing else. And it cannot `borrow and spend' for ever, as the United States government is doing in 2004. It can only `borrow and spend' for a short time — decades, not generations.
I fear that the countries of the world will add institutions, like the World Trade Organization, to help their people and businesses settle international disputes. But they will do nothing to provide those transnational organizations with political legitimacy. As a consequence, dispute resolution will remain an arena of power and force, like business dispute resolution in China.
Meanwhile, one group may hinder needful government regulations, particularly because they are so unenforceable in the majority of the global economy . At the same time, others may oppose a market for pollutants, not because banning is simpler to enforce, but because the market notion is more complex to understand..
All in all, I fear that misleading metaphors will cause disastrous decisions.
Unfortunately, misleading metaphors are just one cause. Jared Diamond talks about four:
Return to: Notions
Or return to: Rattlesnake Home Page