[ I wrote this on 25 June 1980. Here is a copy of what I wrote, unchanged [except for additions in braces], errors and all, with commentary ... ]
1. I expect fuel producing bacteria within 5 years. If this expectation comes true, the energy crisis will be over and the synthesized fuel program will be the biggest white elephant of all. The bacteria will [use solar energy to] make fuel at 5% efficiency, so a lot of space will be needed to grow them: 5 — 10,000 square kilometers for the U.S.A. perhaps. The investment of 50 — 100 billion square feet of growing area may be $50 — $100 billion. This would take 5, 10, or 15 years.
Commentary, July 2004
Well, this did not happen.
People do talk about biomass energy production, but its efficiency is twenty times less than the 400 megajoules per square meter per year that I was presuming. The United States Oak Ridge National Laboratory suggests that a bioenergy crop might yield 10 — 20 megajoules per square meter per year. The U.S. currently uses approximately 100 Exajoules per year (100x10^18 joules/yr), a rate of more than three terawatts.
At 20 megajoules per square meter per year, a three terawatt rate requires 400 million hectares of surface (one billion acres), which is more than twice the areas of US arable land.
At 400 megajoules per square meter per year a three terawatt rate requires 20 million hectares of surface (50 million acres), which is a bit more than 10% of the US arable land.
2. An extra 20 years of vigorous life may come from a variety of drugs and other treatments to reduce arteriosclerosis, arthritis, senility, etc. A person might continue with facilities equal to that of late 50s or early 60s. This innovation may occur piecemeal over 20 — 30 years adding 1 or 1.5 years life expectancy per year and producing a population problem just as birth rates fall or say down (but they may rise, too, ...).
Commentary, July 2004
This did not occur, either, although some are arguing that Europe has
too low a birth rate and that within a few generations it will be
overwhelmed by non-Christians. (The US also has a low birth rate, but
many immigrate.)
Perhaps I am simply optimistic, but I would not be surprised to see an extension of vigorous life over the next 20 — 30 years, because of new understandings.
As for population: what would be the implications of a 10% — 15% reduction in population every generation for the next two centuries? Would the reduced population be better for the planet? Would people benefit?
3. Improved memory means be able to remember things one is not interested in. This saves the schools from one kind of collapse and produces another problem — what to teach or how to teach problem solving techniques. Teaching machines, etc, will come into vogue.
Commentary, July 2004
We have not yet seen improved memory technologies, although various
drug companies are talking about them. Also, we have not seen
bio-feedback devices for sale, along with instructions on how to use
them to help memory.
4. Quasi-telepathic electronics will make dictatorships harder to overthrow unless police interrogators are persuaded by the minds of those they interrogate. Also, [these devices] will speed learning and provide high intensity entertainment. Maybe manufactures objects are [sic] not needed to much ...
Commentary, July 2004
Wrong again, although various reports suggest that with new brain
imaging techniques, police may become able to determine whether a
suspect saw or did not see a particular building or person. If one of
these methods is successful, it will enable dictatorships to
suppress revolt more effectively. The same method would help solve
some ordinary crimes.
5. Quickly self-reproducing machines will reduce the cost of manufactured objects but not the cost of servants, non-manufactured objects such as land or handicrafts. Maintenance time won't be cut except by disposal. ... NB — implies cheap energy because cheaply made solar collectors of whatever kind. Also, cheap raw materials.
Commentary, July 2004
I was wrong about Von
Neumann Machines, too.
I was wrong about everything. Of course, we are just a bit less than half way through the half century of my title. But still, I expected to see more movement over the past 24 years than I have.
Interestingly, I expect all of these innovations over the next 26 years. None seem impossible; all look profitable to organizations first developing and marketing them. Either I am continually and unrealistically optimistic, or I was a generation ahead of my time.
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