In July of 2003, US Senator James Inhofe said that
... natural variability is the overwhelming factor influencing climate
and that current climate change does not come from human activity.
I hope he is wrong — most scientists think he is wrong — because if he is right, this means that it is important to act immediately to restrict humanly produced greenhouse gases, and to do so strongly, in order to try to compensate for damaging and costly natural changes. The mainstream, `anti-global warming' advice gives us more time and requires less effort.
The greenhouse gases whose output we can determine to some extent are: carbon dioxide, methane, the nitrous oxides, and the chlorofluorocarbons.
The Senator says that current human inputs of these greenhouse gases do not have much effect, even though they are known to have some influence. If he is right, then to protect us against more natural disasters, we will have to reduce greenhouse gases even more than most scientists suggest. If the tool is weaker, we have to act more strongly. That is the best we can do.
Otherwise, people in Senator Inhofe's home state of Oklahoma, as well as elsewhere, will suffer from droughts, floods, storms, cold spells, and heat waves. (I think it is well understood that no one will notice a small change in average temperature, but everyone will notice, and pay for, worse weather.)
Over the past half century, I have seen a change in local weather — right now, I live only a short distance from where I grew up, so the differences are not geographic. In particular, I have noticed that in winter we tend not to suffer long periods with temperatures below 0 degrees Fahrenheit (-18 degrees Celsius) the way we did 40 years ago. This is not to say that we do not suffer cold, just that the cold is less. Similarly, some recent winters were heavy with snow — as one would expect, since there is more moisture in warmer air. At the same time, I have noticed that a few recent winters have been so warm that we have had more rain than snow.
Summers are different, too. Rather than a few days of very hot and humid weather, we sometimes suffer several weeks of such weather. Other summers seem to have more rain than in the past.
This is personal observation. It is `strongly suggestive' to me. But you may not accept my reports. You will have to decide which reports or which personal observations to accept.
As far as I can determine, it is true that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing. I believe the reports. In particular, I have seen a multi-decade graph of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The amount goes up and down depending on the season: the northern hemisphere has more land and people than the southern hemisphere. This makes a seasonal difference. But the graph as a whole shows an upward trend.
Clearly, natural variation occurs. The Medieval maximum and the Little Ice Age are famous examples. Senator Inhofe talks about them. More recently, temperatures fell from the 1930s to the 1960s or 1970s. Senator Inhofe has a point. Natural variation has an influence. I simply hope he is wrong for the present change. I hope that the people who complain about humanly produced greenhouse gases are right.
Otherwise, if Senator Inhofe is right, we will have to do more to protect ourselves. Because of technological changes and increases in population and knowledge and better communications, current human society will not bear climate changes as uncomplainingly as people did in the 12th century.
Interestingly, as a practical political matter, Senator Inhofe, who otherwise supports the current US Bush Administration, is going directly against it. At least, that is the conclusion I gain from his statements.
However, Senator Inhofe himself does not come to the same conclusion. Rather than fear drought, flood, storm, cold, or heat, he suggests that we do nothing, and that the US avoid
... mandatory restrictions on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse emissions...
I do not fathom his reasoning. Neither our technology nor the numbers of our people are Medieval.
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