Inexpensive Earth to Orbit Rockets

The problem with space travel is cost. For frequent travel, the price of reaching low earth orbit from the surface of the earth must drop by a factor of 100.

As a practical and safe matter, this means using air augmented rockets. With such rockets, oxygen is taken from the air for the first part of the trip. Because the rocket does not have to carry all its own oxidizer, the effective specific impulse doubles.

In October 2003, China became the third country to launch people into orbit. It, too, chose the same expensive method for going into space as the US and the Soviet Union. To some extent, this makes sense as it is cheapest method. It is a follow up of the 1930s German experiments in `long range artillery without the gun barrel', and is known to work. Moreover, launching a human into space is difficult.

Unfortunately, the cost of this method is always high. It is expensive to throw away a precision instrument, the rocket, after one use; and the energy densities of chemicals mean that rockets will carry small payloads.

The military do not mind the cost, since their prime goal is to build a device that can destroy an enemy city. One rocket is cheaper than 1000 manned bombers, as were used for city raids in World War II. Over Japan in World War II, the US used flights of 500 to 1000 manned bombers to destroy 62 cities and two flights of one bomber each to destroy two more cities, using nuclear weapons.

Indeed, I suspect that countries that have developed traditional long range rockets want to keep them expensive. The governments think of rockets primarily as a form of nuclear artillery and, secondarily, as a way to loft spy satellites into orbit. They do not want the equivalent of second-hand bombers being purchased by less rich foreign nations. If rocket flights were cheap, many rockets would be built. Eventually, they would be sold. There is no difference between a civilian freight and passenger carrying rocket and a military one. In both situations, the purpose is to carry mass into orbit. The mass could be civilian passengers or a re-entry vehicle with a warhead.

At the moment, space flight is expensive and has few users:

Sadly, the current demand for space flight will not much increase even if the cost to carry a ton into orbit is halved or quartered.

If the cost comes down to a level that people and ordinary businesses can afford, then we will see a huge increase in demand — whole new industries will be invented or existing industries changed. But not until then.

Unfortunately, the major US and foreign companies in the space business have no incentive to reduce costs dramatically: to do so would also reduce their profits dramatically. Not only that, such a cost reduction would require they abandon their current more or less predictable future for one that is full of organizational unknowns.

The companies do have an incentive to keep track of possible cost cutting technologies, in case someone else introduces them. Hence, the various `advanced' research projects you can read about. Also, these projects make for good PR. However, unless the alternative is to lose their current business, the companies have no reason to institute programs that would reduce their current profits and not be predictable by current `good business' criteria.

In addition, as an organization, NASA has no incentive to cut launch costs radically. For one, NASA employees can clearly foresee both their future and that of their organization when the current methods are followed. Moreover, much NASA development is actually done by companies and some think of the agency as a mechanism to provide corporations with disguised welfare. (Scientists, engineers, and such like people think differently; but they don't count bureaucratically. They are useful for creating things that produce good PR, like the Hubble space telescope, and the current unmanned landing on Mars.)

Worse, the US and other spacefaring governments can clearly see the military danger of relatively inexpensive earth to orbit travel: an enemy country could launch several dozen space craft that appear to be normal and civilian. They will cross over the US; that is how orbits work. An enemy military could arrange that all cross the US as the same time, apparently accidentally. If they carry bombs, they could launch them with almost no warning. Large weapons could be detonated in orbit, not giving any warning at all. (It is for this reason that I expect that the US and other countries will insist on an inspection regime.)

As for inexpensive earth to orbit travel: there are two obvious methods:

As I said I do not believe that private companies have the motivation to build air-augmented rockets, since the competition is obvious and would hurt their return on investment. Nor do I believe that any of the current spacefaring nations have motive either, since such an act would reduce the cost of potential enemies' weapons.

As far as I can see, only two countries have a motive: Taiwan and India. Taiwan gains an immediate military capability against mainland China. India, which does not already have a large program using current, expensive technologies, has an establishment who want the country to become a great power. (Israel has more of a motive to research superconductors for controlled hydrogen fusion, since it does not need inexpensive rockets to fight its neighbors militarily, but it does want to bankrupt them and preserve its national identity.)


Last modified: Monday, 2004 May 10 14:09 UTC

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